SIMULATION OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN IRAN UNDER THE ATMOSPHERE CARBON DIOXIDE DUPLICATION CONDITION

Abstract

The present research intends to show the effect of global warming on
the trend and patterns of temperature in Iran. The study has been
divided into two primary parts, the first of which is an analysis of the
country's temperature trend using the following data measures: the
minimum, maximum, and mean seasonal night temperature (the minimum
temperature) components, the day temperature (the maximum temperature)
component and the mean daily temperature component. This data is
specific to the time frame 1951 to 2005 and it was obtained from 92
synoptic and climatology stations around the country. The second part of
this research involved simulating and forecasting the effects of global
warming on temperature values under conditions in which greenhouse
gases have increased. For analyzing these simulations and forecasts the
MAGICC SCENGEN model was used and different climate change scenarios
were taken into consideration. The results are quite interesting. In the
analysis of the country's current temperature trend and in the
forecasting's, specifically related to time, a significant temperature
increase was observed during the summer months. Also, with regard to
altitudinal levels, it was evident that stations at higher altitudes
show a more significant increase in daily and mean daily temperatures.
Taking into account the output mean of the different climate change
scenarios, the temperature simulations show a 4.41° C increase in Iran's
mean temperature by 2100. Most of these temperature increases would
occur in the southern and eastern parts of Bushehr, certain coastal
regions of the Persian Gulf, eastern and western parts of Fars,
Kohgilooye, Boyerahmad, southern parts of Yazd, as well as southern and
southeastern parts of Esfahan